The Process vs the Results - What Makes a Good Bowler

That's the question I asked myself embarking on creating the first ever GlennPom ratings, what makes a good bowler? How can you separate the process from the results? Because as we all have heard over the past 9 years, “”If you fall in love with the process, the process will love you back” - Matt Cambpell” - Glenn Zaleski. Over the past two weeks I have done a deep dive into the game of bowling and tried to figure out how it works, the keys to success, and what it takes to reach the highest level of this game. Below are some of my thoughts on the intricacies and quirks that make up the GlennPom.

Strike me baby one more time

Strikes+ is my way to get around the fact that not all Strikes are created equal. 10th frame strikes are worth less because you don't get the added bonus of the next frames included in your score. It can also inflate someone's strike% above 100% if they bowled a (almost) perfect game with 13 Strikes in 10 frames. I count each strike in frames 1-9 as 1 but put a value of 10th frame strikes as .7. I'm still playing around with how much a 10th frame strike should be valued (and if anyone has some ideas, backed up with a rationale, please reach out). I do like the idea that at the end of the game the pressure is on and if your throwing strikes it probably means you're good in the clutch, that's why I bumped it up from .5 to .7. But this way at least people aren't being rewarded too heavily for empty calorie strikes.

The wacky world of Spares

I have categorized Spares into 3 categories, or 2 categories and a subcategory. The first is Single Pin Spares (SPS), this is where you knock 9 pins in the first half of the frame resulting in 1 pin remaining standing. The model views hitting 9 pins as neutral, it is not good, its not bad, you will not gain or deduct points with 9 pins. The second is Multi Pin Spares (MPS). This is if you get a 0-8 on the first half of a frame, the model does view this as negative and you will be deducted points for the Multi Pin Spare Attempts / Frames Bowled. If you want to be a good bowler you need to get at least 9 pins in the front half of the frame. The data bores that out, SPS% is higher than MPS%  for all but two bowlers (shout out the McClure and Wenndt). The last category is dreaded Split Pin Spares (SLS), famous for the nearly impossible 7-10 splits on the lanes; these are the hardest spares to pick up. Similar to MPS you will be deducted points for Split Pin Spare Attempts / Frames Bowled. Split Pin Spares also count as Multi Pin Spares because you can't have a split without 2 or more pins. Matthew Torntore is the only one picking up SPS at higher than a 50% clip but he's only attempted and put himself in this situation once. No one with multiple Split Pin Spare Attempts is higher than 50%. The model also rewards points based on your % of closing out each type of Spare. 

Oren Spungeon, the new kid on the block, is our first outlier in the data. The Power Rating really likes his underlying numbers even though he hasn't been rewarded on the pinewood yet. 2nd highest Strike% in the league, 100% Single Pin Spare %, his downfall so far has been a high number of Multi Pin Spare Attempts, nearly 50% (9/20) of his frames result in these situations. And he's not particularly good at them, closing out a little more than 1 in 5 of them, good for 4th worst in the league. Getting his MPS% up while keeping his Strikes and SPS% high could see Oren be the next breakout candidate at Waveland. 

To Sequence or not to Sequence

Now let's talk about how the scoring of bowling actually works. 

Sequencing is what I call the added bonuses that a Strike or Spare gives you to look beyond the current frame. To be the best possible bowler you need to stack closed out frames down the line. Getting 4 Strikes in a game is good but getting 4 Strikes in a game where they are one after the other is better. 

Now I have taken the stance that sequencing is not a skill a bowler can have. If you are for some reason more likely to get a Strike after already getting one, why don't you just hit Strikes every time! Sequencing is technically rewarded in the model by Frame Closeout %, if you are closing out a high number of frames each game, your chances of Strikes feeding into Strikes and Spares feeding into Spares goes up dramatically. 

Let's say you average 3 Strikes a game and all other frames you hit 9 pins. If those Strikes are B2B2B then you end up with a score of 141. If those Strikes are in the 1st, 4th and 8th frame you end up with a score of 120. That's a 17.5% increase with the same number of pins knocked down, just in a different sequence! 

Our biggest outlier in the dataset Michael ‘Milk’ Richards is a result of sequencing. His Points Per Frame is 16.03 but he's ranked 12th in the GlennPom, sandwiched by a PPF of 14.7 and 12.73. This is the result of a monster sequencing game Milk had in week 2, where he put up 7 strikes in a row in a single game (not to mention none of those strikes were in the 10th frame)! The other two games he bowled that night, only 6 strikes, and only 2 of those came in back to back frames. This resulted in a disproportionate points per frame from the amount of actual pins Milk knocked over. Putting up 7 strikes in a game is great, but what's even more incredible is putting up 7 Strikes in a row! By stacking closed out frames like that, Michael was able to bowl an outlier game and based on his history it seems like he's good for at least 1-2 monstar games every Waveland league. The model however rewards consistency and process, the process by which you bowl is what the GlennPom is trying to figure out. 

All Together Now

The GlennPom rewards points in the following order - Strike+%, Close-out Frame%, SPS%, MPS% and SLS% with deductions coming from MPSA / Frames Bowled and SLSA / Frames Bowled. A high percentage of Multi Pin Spare Attempts and Split Pin Spare Attempts will cost you points in the GlennPom because they are the least efficient way to get a spare and close out the frame. 

Thank you for following me on this journey to understand bowling at a more atomic level. The GlennPom will continue to be updated week after week with more deep dives on the insights derived from the process separated from the results. Keep sending in your frame by frame data!